Applicability of sunspot activity on the climatic conditions of Gilgit-Baltistan region using fractal dimension rescaling method

Abstract

ABSTRACT The total solar irradiance fluctuates on the scale of 11 year cycle and is associated to sunspots, solar activity and climate. The sunspot number is an essential parameter for presenting the intensity of solar activity. The minimum and maximum values of sunspot number during each solar cycle represent a fractional variation in solar radiation energy. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance seems to suggest a potential driving force for larger regional surface climate effects. It is to be explored the possible impacts of the sunspot activity on climate parameters, i.e., temperature and precipitation of Gilgit-Baltistan region. The segregated datasets of temperatures and precipitations of the region have been obtained for the period from 1954 to 2015. The corresponding sunspot cycles have been used are: 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23. The cycle 24 is incomplete and gives insignificant result. The climate datasets of both metrological stations have been partitioned for making cycle-wise comparison with the corresponding sunspot cycles by Fractal Rescaling method. The analysis was carried out under similarity 0.5 and 1.5 for the Hurst exponent and fractal dimension, respectively. The results obtained show that the inconstant solar irradiance due to the sunspot number variation at minima and maxima seem to have persistent effects on the regional temperatures and precipitations. Moreover, it is found that the sunspot cyclic activity is more strongly correlated with regional precipitations than the temperatures. This study indicates the need for more robust study of regional climate variability due to sunspot activity and the other solar indices that may be contributing to affect these climate parameters.