Abstract
In recent years the economical conditions and the rising public criticism against large-scale publicworks represent the key issue toward the new directions of flood management in Japan. In consequencethe future flood actions is shifting from the well known “traditional hard protection measures stating thatno flood should occur” to the so called “soft countermeasures” stating that larger efforts should beconcen trated on new alternatives aiming to reduce the loss of life and damage of important propertieswhen a natural flood does occur. Therefore, under this new shift it becomes a primary issue to improvethe current soft abilities to forecast the size and impact of flood disaster before a flood does occur. Thepresent research is a growing assessment tool that aims to provide valuable decision support informationlikely to enhance the judgment abilities of river managers in providing disaster countermeasures actionssuch as refuge guidance. At earlier stage of this study the correlation nature between the actual AMeDASprecipitation data and the 6-hour forecast precipitation results of the Japan Meteorological Agencymesoscale numerical weather prediction model (Meso Spectral Model: MSM) was investigated. Theresults showed that rainfall forecast by MSM model would still need further research and improvement inorder to be used in practice. At a second stage, the MSM climatological data where used to derive newoutput variables (such as water divergence) by applying a straight for ward mathematical trans for mationmodel. The correlation results between the actual AMeDAS precipitation data and the transformed outputvariables were relatively high and promising.
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