Anxiety and the Vote in the 2012 French Presidential Election

Abstract

The theory of affective intelligence is one of the most prominent theories to the understanding of voters’ decision-making processes and the key role that emotions play in shaping democratic politics. Despite extensive interest and discussion on its theoretical foundations and its empirical illustration, tests of the theory of affective intelligence outside the United States are scarce. This paper adjusts and tests the theory of affective intelligence in the second round of the 2012 French presidential election. Furthermore, it extends current evidence by relying on extrinsic anxiety, in the light of recent criticism that anxiety’s effect on vote choice is in fact endogenous. Results confirm the basic premises of the theory. I find that anxious voters are more likely to abandon the habitual ideological identification and concentrate on contemporary assessments and especially the issue of unemployment. These findings confirm the theory of affective intelligence against recent criticisms. Furthermore, they bridge two long traditions in the study of the French voters, arguing that voting on the basis on the long or short term forces is subject to the electorate’s levels of anxiety.