Abstract
Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning.
Highlights
Urbanization is the process of growth in the proportion of a country’s total urban population (Thomas, 2008)
This study explores transition relationships between urbanization, land cover, and climate of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035
The majority of the global population currently live in urban areas, in 2018 this amounted to more than 4 billion people (UN DESA, 2019) and this number is growing at an annual rate of nearly 2% (World Bank, 2018)
Summary
Urbanization is the process of growth in the proportion of a country’s total urban population (Thomas, 2008). The majority of the global population currently live in urban areas, in 2018 this amounted to more than 4 billion people (UN DESA, 2019) and this number is growing at an annual rate of nearly 2% (World Bank, 2018). By 2050, proportion of the global urban population is likely to rise to 68% which will be mostly contributed by countries in Asia and Africa where the rate of urbanization is most rapid (UN DESA, 2019). After liberation in 1971, the population of Dhaka started to rise sharply and since 1991 Dhaka has experienced remarkable urban growth (Rahman, et al, 2008). Historical change and urban growth pattern monitoring of Dhaka Metropolitan Area using remote sensing technologies (Ahmed, et al, 2013; Ahmed & Ahmed, 2012; Dewan & Yamaguchi, 2009a; Dewan & Yamaguchi, 2009b) have been of great interest to the scientific community
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