Synergies of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change on Water Balance Components in SSP–RCP Scenarios over Munneru basin, India

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The growing human population accelerates alterations in land use and land cover (LULC) over time, putting tremendous strain on natural resources. Rapid land use transformations, encompassing urbanization, intensive agriculture, and changes in natural landscapes, have a profound impact on water cycle. This necessitates the development and implementation of sustainable land management strategies to mitigate adverse effects on water resources. Anticipating future land use and cover (LU&LC) dynamics in the Munneru river basin is pivotal for modelling of hydrological processes. This study delves into the combined impact of Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios (LU&LC) which is based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-45, SSP3-75 and SSP5-85) and climate change within the context of representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5) scenarios on water resources for Munneru river basin, India. Landsat data was employed for preparing LU&LC maps from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) using the random forest (RF) method for the period 2005-2020 with the accuracy of 91% and kappa coefficient of 0.89. The future scenarios of LU&LC’s were projected by integrating Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) data and DynaCLUE model for 2030, 2050 and 2080. DynaCLUE model uses driving factors, Binary Logistic Regression analysis for past LU&LC maps for projecting future LU&LC maps. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated for the period 1983–2017 in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI2 algorithm for 2015 LU&LC map. The future projected LU&LC maps based on SSP’s are incorporated in SWAT model for future periods under both RCP 4.5 & 8.5 scenarios. The average monthly streamflow’s are simulated for the baseline period (1983–2005) and for three future periods, namely the near future (2021–2039), mid future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2099) under both LU&LC and climate change scenarios. Results indicate that there is increase in surface runoff and water yield and decrease in evapotranspiration, groundwater and total aquifer for three SSP scenarios under both RCP’s. Assessing the impact on water balance components, provides the necessity for adaptive strategies in the face of shifting climate and land use dynamics.