Abstract
The first large-scale (secondary) intervention trials have been initiated in first-degree family members of patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). Within a few years, data from these studies may suggest that intervention is possible, thereby opening similar approaches in the general population. However, before large-scale intervention studies can be initiated, several problems need to be solved. One of these problems is the lack of knowledge on the natural course of β-cell autoimmunity. This review analyses this and other issues related to population-based prediction for IDDM. At present, no long-term follow-up studies are available in large-sized populations, but data show that prediction in the general population is both technically feasible and likely to have sufficient power to be useful in prevention trials. More data need to be generated, not only to determine which markers are most likely to give good prediction but also to obtain knowledge on the natural course, psychosocial impact and cost-effectiveness of screening.
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