Abstract
Using time series data for the period 1959–2015, our empirical analysis examines the simultaneous effects of the individual components of the global carbon budget on temperature. Specifically, we explore the possible effects of carbon emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion, cement production, land-use change emissions, and carbon sinks (here in terms of land sink and ocean sink) on climate change. The simultaneous inclusion of carbon emissions and carbon sinks allows us to look at the coexistent and opposing effects of the individual components of the carbon budget and thus provides a holistic perspective from which to explore the relationship between the global carbon budget and global warming. The results reveal a significant positive effect of carbon emissions on temperature for both fossil fuels emissions and emissions from land-use change, confirming previous results concerning carbon dioxide and temperature. Further, while ocean sink does not seem to have a significant effect, we identify a temperature-decreasing effect for land sink.
Highlights
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges humanity currently faces
Net carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry include carbon flux from deforestation, afforestation, logging, and forest degradation, shifting cultivation and forest regrowth following timber harvest or abandonment of arable land. While some of these activities lead to carbon emissions, others lead to sinks; the estimates represent the net sum of the anthropogenic emissions and the uptake caused by land-use change (GCP 2018)
For the temperature series provided by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we can identify the expected positive effects
Summary
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges humanity currently faces. The planet is heating up, with both land and oceans getting warmer. More recent studies test for a direct relationship between individual forcing and temperature, overcoming the methodological weakness by applying the causality method suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) This method allows for causality testing between variables irrespective of their stationarity and cointegration patterns (Kodra et al 2011; Attanasio 2012; Attanasio et al 2013; Triacca et al 2013; Stern and Kaufmann 2014). When investigating the effect of carbon dioxide on the climate, it is necessary to consider the global carbon cycle as a complex system including trends in anthropogenic emissions; their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere; and the response of natural sinks.
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