Anthropogenic climate change increases vulnerability of Magnolia species more in Asia than in the Americas

Abstract

Quantifying anthropogenic climate change vulnerability is essential for estimating the risk of species extinction and developing conservation strategies. The Magnolia genus is widespread in the Americas and Asia, with nearly half of species currently threatened. Here, we used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of Magnolia species to future climate change. We found that the vulnerability of Magnolia species to future climate change is negatively related to range size. We further identified that narrow-ranged Magnolia species distributed in Asia are more vulnerable than those distributed in the Americas, with protected area coverage also lower in Asia than the Americas. Moreover, the conservation status ranking of Magnolia species classified by the IUCN Red List will likely be changed under climate change, as some Near Threatened and Least Concern species were estimated to be more vulnerable to climate change than species currently classified as Endangered. Our results highlight that conservation assessments, policies and actions need to consider spatial vulnerabilities of species to climate change.