Annual Water Consumption Forecast of Hefei Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

The ARIMA entity model was used in Hefei's current water demand coding sequence from 1990 to 2018. According to the ADF (Unit Root Test), it is clear that the number of differences d in the entity model is 2, and the main parameters in the entity model p, q are basic identification based on time series analysis related graphs, and based on the Akaike Information Content Rule (AIC) and other methods It is clear that the optimal entity model is ARIMA (1,2,1). ARIMA (1,2,1) is used to predict and analyze Hefei's water demand in the next two years. The results show that the reason for the deviation between the estimated value and the specific value is relatively small, indicating that the actual effect of the actual model predictive analysis is excellent.