Announcement of an approaching death: Glaciar Norte, Citlaltépetl volcano, Mexico

Abstract

This study shows the dramatic but probable future evolution of Mexico's largest glacier. Mass and energy balances of this glacier have been previously studied, as well as reconstructions of its evolution up to the present time. In this work, for the first time, the real evolution of the glacier is compared with the first years of models of its future evolution.Two dynamic models of glacier thickness evolution have been developed based on a network of stakes and ground penetrating radar complemented by geometrical characterizations of the glacier bed shape. Calculated mean annual mass balance leads the equilibrium line altitude to be increasingly higher and even higher than that of the mountain summit.Two models that complement each other to describe the how and when of the different states and stages in which the glacier front retracts, the thickness decreases causing the separation of the glacier to finally disappear in the middle of the 21st century. This study provides the first view of a glacier that is about to disappear in Mexico, where the cryosphere represents the best climate proxy for future scenarios of related ecosystems, water availability.