Análisis de población viable para determinar el riesgo de extinción de la liebre de Tehuantepec (Lepus flavigularis) en Santa María del Mar, Oaxaca

Abstract

It has been recognized the need for studies to determine the long-term viability of populations of endangered species, such as the Tehuantepec jackrabbit ( Lepus flavigularis ) populations. Currently the total population is estimated at less than 1000 individuals. We developed a viable population analysis to determine the extinction risk of the Tehuantepec jackrabbit population of Santa Maria del Mar, Oaxaca. A total of 31 scenarios were modeled in order to test independent and combined effect of flooding, predation by domestic dogs and poaching; also we tested the effect of inbreeding depression and a hypothetical reintroduction program. The results show that the Tehuantepec jackrabbit population is at high risk of extinction. The population survived over the 500 years of simulation only in the model which involved the hunt, besides the base model. The effects of the three catastrophic scenarios in combination, as well as the inbreeding, increased the risk of extinction up to 100% and an average of 41.60 ± 25.88 years. Based on our results, we propose that conservation and management strategies should include the elimination of threats that affect the Tehuantepec jackrabbit, as well as improvement of habitat quality. Also, assess the relevance of a translocation program with individuals from other populations.