Global meta-population viability analysis determines relative extinction risk among threatened seabirds

Abstract

**Abstract:** To prevent additional seabird extinctions, conservation practitioners need to know what species to focus on, what actions to take, and where to take them. We created a spatially explicit meta-population viability analysis (mPVA) model for all IUCN threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable) seabirds. We generated the model parameters by combining a global database on the breeding location, population meta structure, and anthropogenic threats to seabirds with a detailed seabird demographic and population database. Potential conservation interventions can be entered into the model to estimate the change they will have on extinction risk. We completed an extinction risk analysis for 94 insular threatened seabird species to determine which species are at Extreme (>75% of model runs predicted species extinction) or High (50 - 75% of model runs predicted species extinction) risk of extinction within 100 years. Our analysis identifies five conservation priorities and opportunities: 1) seabird species at extreme or high risk of extinction in the next century, 2) families of seabirds (Procellarids) that include the largest proportion of species with extreme or high risks of extinction, 3) the potential for mitigation of extinction risk to be gained by conducting all feasible eradications of damaging invasive vertebrates on at least one breeding island of extreme/high risk seabirds, 4) the potential for mitigation of extinction risk to be gained by conducting translocations/reintroductions to establish/re-establish breeding colonies of extreme/high risk seabirds, and 5) opportunities where innovation of new tools or competencies will significantly reduce the probability of extinction of threatened seabirds. **Authors:** Donald Croll¹, Kelly Zilliacus¹, M. Tim Tinker², Diana Ruiz¹, Bernie Tershy¹ ¹University of California, Santa Cruz, ²Nhydra Ecological Consulting