ANÁLISE ESTRATÉGICA NERINT

Abstract

In 2021, the covid-19 pandemic continues to dominate the international scene, but that does not mean that the political cleavages and tensions lost their space. In this edition, relevant themes are analyzed, such as the reasons for the recent clashes that affect national stability in Angola, a promising African state. Next, two articles address the issue of the Russian opponent Navalny and the situation in eastern Ukraine, showing little-known dimensions about these two themes. As for the set of problems that concern the containment of China by the United States and the United Kingdom, the subject that was selected was that of the demonstrations in Hong Kong in 2019 and 2020, which brings an original and thought-provoking analysis. Vaccine diplomacy also emerged as a new topic, with political-strategic and economic dimensions that go beyond the global health crisis, and was objectively assessed here. Another event that surprised many analysts was the military coup in Myanmar, which has both an internal and an external dimension and is addressed here from a critical perspective. Then, an overview of the first 100 days of the Biden administration in the diplomatic and security fields is offered, confirming the predictions expressed in the previous edition that the foreign policy changes would rely on form, and not so much on content. Finally, the return of leftist candidates to power in Latin America is analyzed, exploring the fluidity and uncertainty of the regional political framework. The analysis of the conjuncture, more than just explaining specific events, can contribute to the understanding of ongoing processes and the structure that is taking shape. In this sense, the covid-19 pandemic, regardless of its origin (will we ever know for sure?), has been addressed, as it appears, in an ineffectual way even by prosperous and organized countries. Thus, a strategic reflection shows that the health crisis may be serving as a cover for another one, which was already manifesting itself in previous years: the economic slowdown. All social difficulties would now be presented as a result of the pandemic, as well as the political morass within the states of the system, and conflicts between them would be justified or camouflaged. So, here is a question for reflection: is the ongoing situation being used, to a large extent, as an opportune instrument for managing the economic crisis and the technological and geopolitical dispute currently underway?