ANEMI_Yangtze v1.0: a coupled human–natural systems model for the Yangtze Economic Belt – model description

Abstract

Abstract. The Yangtze Economic Belt (hereafter, the Belt) is one of the most dynamic regions in China in terms of population growth, economic progress, industrialization, and urbanization. It faces many resource constraints (land, food, energy) and environmental challenges (pollution, biodiversity loss) under rapid population growth and economic development. Interactions between human and natural systems are at the heart of the challenges facing the sustainable development of the Belt. By adopting systematic thinking and the methodology of system dynamics simulation, an integrated system-dynamics-based simulation model for the Belt, named ANEMI_Yangtze, has been developed based on the third version of ANEMI3. The nine sectors of population, economy, land, food, energy, water, carbon, nutrients, and fish are currently included in ANEMI_Yangtze. This paper presents the ANEMI_Yangtze model description, which includes (i) the identification of the cross-sectoral interactions and feedbacks involved in shaping the Belt's system behavior over time; (ii) the identification of the feedbacks within each sector that drive the state variables in that sector; and (iii) the description of a new fish sector and modifications to the population, food, energy, and water sectors, including the underlying theoretical basis for model equations. The validation and robustness tests confirm that the ANEMI_Yangtze model can be used to support scenario development, policy assessment, and decision-making. This study aims to improve the understanding of the complex interactions among coupled human–natural systems in the Belt to provide the foundation for science-based policies for the sustainable development of the Belt.