Abstract

Yangtze Economic Belt is one of the most dynamic regions in China in terms of population growth, economic progress, industrialization, and urbanization. It faces many resource constraints (food, energy) and environmental challenges (pollution, biodiversity loss) under rapid population growth and economic development. Interactions between human and natural systems are at the heart of the challenges facing the sustainable development of the Yangtze Economic Belt. Understanding these interactions poses challenges because human and natural systems evolve in response to a wide range of influences. Accounting for these complex dynamics requires a system tool that can represent the fundamental drivers of change and responses of the individual system as well as how different systems interact and co-evolve. By adopting the system thinking and the methodology of system dynamics simulation, an integrated assessment model for the Yangtze Economic Belt, named ANEMI_Yangtze, is developed based on the third version of the global integrated assessment model, ANEMI. Nine sectors of population, economy, land, food, energy, water, carbon, nutrients, and fish are currently included in ANEMI_Yangtze. This paper identifies the opportunities and challenges facing the Yangtze Economic Belt and presents the ANEMI_Yangtze model structure. It also includes: (i) the identification of the cross-sectoral interactions and feedbacks involved in shaping Yangtze Economic Belt’s system behaviour over time; (ii) the identification of the feedbacks within each sector that drive the state variables in that sector; and (iii) the explanation of the theoretical and mathematical basis for those feedbacks. ANEMI_Yangtze was developed and calibrated sector by sector before coupling them together into complete ANEMI_Yangtze model. After the validation and robustness test, the ANEMI_Yangtze model can be used to support decision making, policy assessment, and scenario development. This study aims to improve the understanding of the complex interactions among human and natural systems in the Yangtze Economic Belt to provide foundation for science-based policies for the sustainable development of the economic belt.

Highlights

  • This study aims to improve the understanding of the complex interactions among human and natural systems in the Yangtze Economic Belt to provide foundation for science-based policies for the sustainable development of the economic belt

  • This paper focuses on the model description, that is, (i) the identification of the cross-sectoral interactions and feedbacks involved in shaping Yangtze Economic Belt’s system behaviour over time; (ii) the identification of the feedbacks within each sector that drive the state variables in that sector; and (iii) the explanation of the theoretical and mathematical basis for those feedbacks

  • We focus on analyzing the nonlinearity, delays, and feedbacks in determining the long-term system behaviour in the Yangtze Economic

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Summary

Introduction

Today global problems and challenges facing humanity are becoming more and more complex and directly related to the areas of energy, water, and food production, distribution, and use (Hopwood et al, 2005; Bazilian et al, 2011; Akhtar et al, 2013; van Vuuren et al, 2015; D’Odorico et al, 2018). They include the ANEMI model developed at Western University (Simonovic, 2002; 2002a; Davies and Simonovic, 2010; 2011; Akhtar et al, 2013; 2019; Simonovic and Breach, 2020; Breach and Simonovic, 2020; under review); the IMAGE model (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) developed at Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Stehfest et al, 2014), and the GCAM model (Global Change Analysis Model) developed at the University of Maryland (Calvin et al, 2019) While these global IAMs provide valuable tools to explore the multiple interactions among human and natural systems and to assess the impacts of global change and adaptation and vulnerability of human society, they are of less value to local policymakers (Holman et al, 2008; Bazilian et al., 2011; Simonovic and Breach, 2020; Breach and Simonovic, 2020; under review).

The great opportunities of the Yangtze Economic Belt
Geographic location
Natural resources
Comprehensive industrial system
Culture
The major challenges facing the development of the Yangtze Economic
Climate change impacts
Energy crisis
Land availability and food security
Water pollution
Depletion of Yangtze fish stock
From ANEMI to ANEMI_Yangtze
ANEMI_Yangtze cross-sectoral interactions and feedbacks
Population Sector
Economy Sector
Land Sector
Food Sector
Energy Sector
Water Sector
Carbon Sector
Nutrients Sector
Fish Sector
B total food production : Current tce
Model application
Findings
Conclusions
Full Text
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