Ancient Affections: Standing in the Way of Resolution in Cyprus?

Abstract

ANCIENT AFFECTIONS: ____ STANDING IN THE WAY OF RESOLUTION IN CYPRUS? NicholmSambanis x. he history ofthe Mediterranean is infused with memories oftragedy. It is a history that warns against naive reflections on die region's feuds and precludes superficial solutions to ancient problems. War, partition, and die disappointing setdement process in Cyprus are cases in point Since 1977 the only officially negotiated solution to die Cyprus problem has been the establishment of a bizonal, bicommunal federation. Yet under die present circumstances of ethnic hostility and resentment a workable Cypriot federation is not feasible. Radier, a Cypriot federation should be considered die ultimate—not the immediate—goal. The conflict in Cyprus is complex and has been influenced and often dominated by global and regional powers. Today, however, the problem is essentially internal, perpetuated by the animosity of rival identity groups. Increasingly, it is clear that communal initiatives to improve interedinic relations will be necessary to resolve the conflict The potential of these initiatives to improve relations is considerable, since die hostility diat divides die two ethnic groups in Cyprus is not inescapable or innate. Instead, die hostility has been primarily shaped by external factors. Furthermore, the lack of progress so fer in the negotiations is an outcome not only of the hostility between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, but also of die limited scope of the different mediation efforts. Nicholas Sambanis received his M.A. in international economics and European studies from SAIS in May 1992 and was a visiting scholar at the International Economics Department of SAIS from 1993 to 1994. He is currendy a Ph.D. candidate at the Woodrow Wilson School of Princeton University. 125 126 SAISReview SUMMER-FALL 1994 The Cyprus problem presents us widi a great contemporary challenge: to identify a political system mat offers a compromise between the ungovernable situation thatwould ensue ifall edinic groups suddenly achieved self-determination and die also potentially explosive situation of keeping minority groups underprivileged in modern, multicultural societies. Federalism is one system that could offer such a compromise, ifit protects more than the basic freedoms ofall groups, and diese groups joindy design all federal institutions. But since a consensual basis for a Cypriot federation does not currendy exist, plans for a federal solution should be postponed until diere is improvement in interethnic relations within aie framework of a transitional government Federalism will quite likely be the optimal solution in die long run, following a process ofconfidence-building and state-building measures. For the time being, we must acceptthis pragmatic appraisal ofthe situation and develop strategies for cooperation to lay die foundation for a more positive future. A Feasible Solution to the Cyprus Problem! The protractedness of die Cyprus conflict is attributable to five main factors: Cypriot attitudes, die involvement of regional and global powers, the ineffectiveness of past mediation efforts, the complexity of protracted social conflicts, and die emphasis on establishing a federation widiout solid foundations on bodi sides. Greek and Turkish Cypriot concerns continue to be defined in mutually exclusive terms, and fear and distrust prevail. Intransigent attitudes deadlock negotiations, giving many observers die impression that the Cyprus problem is insoluble. The conflict's long history seems to disprove die old maxim diat "any solution is better than no solution." Cypriots have long waited for what they consider the optimal solution, and die majority do not wish to compromise . The lack ofconsensus among Greek Cypriots regarding die goals ofdie negotiations inhibits the formation ofa consistent position.1 The indecision of Greek Cypriots has encountered die consistendy negative attitudes of die Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (trnc). flexibility on both sides is essential for the negotiations to move forward. Establishing democratic processes in the trnc may increase its flexibility. Such processes may be promoted by holding UN-monitored elections in die Turkish Cypriot part to ensure that voices ofopposition to Mr. Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader, 1 Van Coufoudakis in Norma Salem, Cyprus: a Regional Conflict and Its Resolution (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1992). ANCIENT AFFECTIONS IN CYPRUS 127 are heard. Greek Cypriots must also show greater flexibility if they wish to change the status quo partition. Greece and Turkey, two "guarantor" powers of Cypriot independence, have both...