Abstract
The number of Lyme disease cases (Lyme borreliosis) in Ontario, Canada has increased over the last decade, and that figure is projected to continue to increase. The northern limit of Lyme disease cases has also been progressing northward from the northeastern United States into southeastern Ontario. Several factors such as climate change, changes in host abundance, host and vector migration, or possibly a combination of these factors likely contribute to the emergence of Lyme disease cases in eastern Ontario. This study first determined areas of warming using time series remotely sensed temperature data within Ontario, then analyzed possible spatial-temporal changes in Lyme disease risk in eastern Ontario from 2000 to 2013 due to climate change using tick population modeling. The outputs of the model were validated by using tick surveillance data from 2002 to 2012. Our results indicated areas in Ontario where Lyme disease risk changed from unsustainable to sustainable for sustaining Ixodes scapularis (black-legged tick) populations. This study provides evidence that climate change has facilitated the northward expansion of black-legged tick populations’ geographic range over the past decade. The results demonstrate that remote sensing data can be used to increase the spatial detail for Lyme disease risk mapping and provide risk maps for better awareness of possible Lyme disease cases. Further studies are required to determine the contribution of host migration and abundance on changes in eastern Ontario’s Lyme disease risk.
Highlights
The impact of climate change on vector-borne disease systems in North America has been subject to much debate and speculation over the last decade [1]
The objective of this study is to use temperature data to determine (a) how climate has changed in Ontario between 2000 and 2013; and (b) whether any observed climate change could be associated with changes to the spatial distribution of Lyme disease risk in eastern Ontario and a possible cause for the increased number of Lyme disease cases [4,5]
While it is apparent that the number of Lyme disease cases in Ontario rose in the last decade [4,5], While it or is not apparent the has number of Lyme disease cases in Ontario in Much the last whether climatethat change contributed to the increase requires furtherrose study
Summary
The impact of climate change on vector-borne disease systems in North America has been subject to much debate and speculation over the last decade [1]. Sensitive to changes in environmental conditions and patterns, vectors of tick-borne diseases may be vulnerable to climatic changes, which could play a role in the vector’s overall development, abundance and activity. In 2004, there were only 40 cases of Lyme disease in Canada [4], while in 2016 there were 343 cases in Ontario alone [6]. Ixodes scapularis (I. scapularis), commonly known as the black-legged tick, is the primary vector of B. burgdorferi in Canada. Populations of this tick have been identified in several provinces across
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