Abstract
Research Highlights: This is the first study that has considered forest management and wildfires in the balance of living biomass and carbon stored in Mediterranean forests. Background and Objectives: The Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement request countries to estimate and report carbon emissions and removals from the forest in a transparent and reliable way. The aim of this study is to forecast the carbon stored in the living biomass of Spanish forests for the period 2000–2050 under two forest management alternatives and three forest wildfires scenarios. Materials and Methods: To produce these estimates, we rely on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI) and we use the European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM). SNFI plots were classified according to five static (forest type, known land-use restrictions, ownership, stand structure and bioclimatic region) and two dynamic factors (quadratic mean diameter and total volume). The results were validated using data from the latest SNFI cycle (20-year simulation). Results: The increase in wildfire occurrence will lead to a decrease in biomass/carbon between 2000 and 2050 of up to 22.7% in the medium–low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (B2 scenario) and of up to 32.8% in the medium–high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (A2 scenario). Schoolbook allocation management could buffer up to 3% of wildfire carbon loss. The most stable forest type under both wildfire scenarios are Dehesas. As regards bioregions, the Macaronesian area is the most affected and the Alpine region, the least affected. Our validation test revealed a total volume underestimation of 2.2% in 20 years. Conclusions: Forest wildfire scenarios provide more realistic simulations in Mediterranean forests. The results show the potential benefit of forest management, with slightly better results in schoolbook forest management compared to business-as-usual forest management. The EFDM harmonized approach simulates the capacity of forests to store carbon under different scenarios at national scale in Spain, providing important information for optimal decision-making on forest-related policies.
Highlights
Forests store large amounts of carbon [1] and are a critical component of the global carbon cycle as they store over 80% of global terrestrial above-ground carbon [2]
To analyze the dynamics of carbon storage in Spanish forests, Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI) plots were classified according to five static and two dynamic factors from SNFI field data recorded in each plot or using auxiliary cartographical information (Table 1)
A significant interaction was found between the disturbance effects of higher wildfire frequency (B2 and A2 scenarios) and decreasing forest management, which supports the hypothesis that warming and abandonment of forest management have a synergistic effect on the forest carbon balance, as reported in previous studies conducted in Spain [45,46]
Summary
Forests store large amounts of carbon [1] and are a critical component of the global carbon cycle as they store over 80% of global terrestrial above-ground carbon [2]. According to the State of European Forests [3], in Europe, an average of 35.6% of carbon is stored in living biomass, comprised. Under the Kyoto Protocol [5], the Paris Agreement [6], and Regulation 2018/841 of the European Union, countries are requested to estimate and report CO2 emissions and removals from forests [7]. The associated disturbances will increase stress and decay and will have severe implications for forest ecosystem dynamics [8]. Global change is likely to affect disturbance regimes, with an expected increase in frequency, size and severity of fires [9] along with outbreaks of insects and disease. Global change will lead to increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, storms and floods [10]
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