Abstract
The Poyang Lake Region (PLR) is well known for its ecological and economic importance. This paper first analyzed the changes in land use/land cover (LULC), followed by changes in landscape patterns and ecosystem services by landscape metrics and equivalent coefficients table method. Then, the influence of LULC change on landscape pattern and ecosystem services in both historical period (from 1990 to 2015) and future period (2030) was explored. The results showed that the area of construction land was 607.9km2 in 1990 and 972.5 km2 in 2015. The increased construction land mainly converted from cultivated land. For the entire PLR, a higher use degree of LULC and a trend of fragmentation existed in recent years. The total ecosystem service values (ESVs) decreased by ¥2.44 × 109 from 1990 to 2015, mainly because of shrinkage of cultivated land and sharp increase in construction land. It was predicted that the areas of construction land and waterbody would increase by 34.6% and 2.2% compared with those in 2015. These changes would lead to more regular in patch shape, longer in patch edge, less connectivity of patches, and an increase of ¥6.2 × 108 ESVs in 2030.
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