Abstract
Theft and vandalism impede the sustainability of renewable energy (RE) development projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, it is essential to explore where these crimes originate from, how they propagate and how they can be counteracted. In our study, we analyze the impact of these disturbances on implemented projects. We utilize a consumer clinic approach to generate data that represents the situation. We define our instigators practically (Government Inequality, Crime to Survive, Sabotage) and demarcate the actions of the offenders into 4 types: (1) vandalization of small RE projects (SPv); (2) theft of RE infrastructures from small RE projects (SPt); (3) vandalization of large RE projects (LPv); and (4) theft of RE infrastructures from large RE projects (LPt). To counteract these actions we define three types of security interference: human, societal and technical. We model the career of an RE criminal as a multi-stage Markov model. In every stage the offender can commit any of the offences SPv, SPt, LPv, LPt, or go to rest. Transition probabilities are our means to reflect offender maturity. Crucial to our model is that they are affected by the level of interference installed at the project site. Calibrated on a dialogue with 144 respondents, our Markov model directs us to adequate interferences per project. Specifically, for large projects technical and human security are the most effective, whereas, for small projects we recommend societal security. The paper introduces a mathematical model of the career of a RE-offender including the influence of security interference and calibrates the parameters through an ethnographic approach.
Highlights
Across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the dissemination of renewable energy technologies (RETs) is currently soaring
Giving that the seriousness of committed offences are usually judged by legal experts and law enforcement, the researchers utilized an alternative measure of perceived seriousness, one that mirrors public opinion
Measuring popular perceptions requires the utilization of probabilities from the general population and in our case, the intricate phenomenon of crime perception in Sub Saharan Africa centers around theft and violence
Summary
Across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the dissemination of renewable energy technologies (RETs) is currently soaring. In this study, our focus is on the protection of RE infrastructure and the impact of theft and vandalism on the sustainability of the implemented projects. The level of interference is described as the level and type of security an offender may encounter based on project type and location when attempting to vandalize or purloin RE related infrastructures. It is paramount to ascertain the instigators that lead to the theft and vandalism of these projects and incorporate those into the model. In this way interferences can be designed to effectively counter the operations of the offenders considering the project type and locations. There exist recent technological solutions that may be considered in the implementation of RE projects that include sensors, short messaging services (SMS) etc. [2] to thwart the potential of theft and vandalism
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