Abstract
The infrastructure design is primarily based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and the current IDF curves are based on the concept of stationary extreme value theory (i.e. occurrence probability of extreme precipitation is not expected to change significantly over time). But, the extreme precipitation events are increasing due to global climate change and questioning the reliability of our current infrastructure design. In this study, the trend in Hyderabad city 1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24- and 48-h duration annual maximum rainfall series are analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, and a significant increasing trend is observed. Further, based on recent theoretical developments in the extreme value theory (EVT), non-stationary rainfall IDF curve for the Hyderabad city is developed by incorporating linear trend in the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The study results indicate that the IDF curves developed under the stationary assumption are underestimating the precipitation extremes.
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