Analyzing Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using SSPs Scenarios (Case Study: Kasungu, Malawi)

Abstract

Due to the impacts of climate change and global warming, Malawi has experienced severe droughts in recent years. Hydro-meteorological drought prediction has been underexplored in Malawi and Southern Africa. This study investigates key CMIP6 climate scenarios to characterize hydro-meteorological droughts in the Kasungu Agricultural Development Division (ADD). The objective is to assess and predict hydro-meteorological droughts in Central Malawi using a multi-model ensemble from eight CMIP6 models across four SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. The research emphasizes the importance of understanding drought evolution under future climate scenarios for effective water resource management, enhanced drought preparedness, and comprehensive adaptation plans. The study calculates the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Results suggest an increased likelihood of moderate and mild droughts in the mid-term of the 2020–2029 period in the region. All three meteorological droughts indicate a significant rise in dry conditions. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, ADD rainfall is projected to decrease by 1.8% and 4.3%, respectively, with more extremely dry conditions under SSP5-8.5. Dry regime frequency is expected to rise for all stations under SSP5-8.5. The findings reveal robust changes in drought characteristics under higher emissions scenarios in Kasungu ADD. Agriculture experts, policymakers, and engineers must comprehend historical and future drought patterns for effective drought mitigation in the region. Similar studies using other CMIP6 models can be conducted in ADD to compare results, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of drought dynamics.