Abstract
Future changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia are projected at the regional scale using 21 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), drought characteristics were characterized by drought frequency at 1-, 3-, and 12-month timescales. The drought duration was analyzed based on SPI1 and SPEI1. Drought indices were calculated by the multimodel ensemble (MME) from 21 CMIP5 models. The varimax rotation method was used to identify drought conditions for the entire area and seven drought subregions. In general, the projection results of future drought in Central Asia are related to the choice of drought index, and SPI and SPEI show different results. The drought frequency based on SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI12 showed an increasing trend in the future periods, that is, the drought frequency based on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales will show an increase trend in the future periods. However, for SPI1, SPI3, and SPI12, the drought frequency will decrease in the future. SPI projected that the duration of drought will decrease in the future, while SPEI mainly showed an increasing trend. The results of the study should be of sufficient concern to policymakers to avoid land degradation, crop loss, water resource deficit, and economic loss.
Highlights
With the development of global warming, the frequency, average duration, and severity of drought events have shown an upward trend [1]
The aim of this paper is to comprehensively study the spatiotemporal drought characteristics based on CMIP5 model outputs from 2006 to 2100
The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was employed as a criterion for drought classification
Summary
With the development of global warming, the frequency, average duration, and severity of drought events have shown an upward trend [1]. Drought is a serious environmental phenomenon which damages agricultural production, human activity, and living space for animals and plants. Global climate warming is causing the world to become hotter and parched [2]. Climate warming has exacerbated drought in some areas. In arid and semihumid areas, climate change and the increase of human activities are likely to lead to ecological degradation and even serious ecological and economic losses [3]. The prediction of future drought in Central Asia is of great significance in dealing with climate change [4]
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