Abstract
Port foreland, serves as the maritime mirror of the hinterland, encompasses the ports and overseas markets interconnected through shipping services. During major global events, understanding port foreland structures becomes imperative for nations and port authorities to anticipate future trade trends and potential coastal management risks. However, systematic approaches for accurately identifying foreland structures remain lacking, particularly given liner shipping complexities. In response, this paper develops two algorithms to analyze changes in the foreland structure of five port clusters in China for the years 2019 and 2022, leveraging over 2.1 billion global vessel AIS trajectory signals. We aim to understand the foreland dynamics of China's ports amidst the broader impacts of the China-US trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine (RU) conflict, and provide insights for maintaining the global trade continuity. Our findings show that geopolitical events and bilateral relations highly influence port foreland structures, yet global supply chain requirements prompt stakeholders to adopt alternative transport strategies. In 2022, China's foreland structures remain stable despite its strict epidemic control measures. Positive developments in China's port forelands with the US are driven by improving bilateral relations and reduced impacts of the US-China trade war, while conflicts in RU cause shrinkage in Europe. On this basis, we provide three constructive opinions on the development of China's port clusters.
Published Version
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