Analytical Study of Factors Affecting Wheat Production in Gezira scheme, Sudan (1991- 2015): دراسة تحليلية للعوامل المؤثرة على إنتاج القمح بمشروع الجزيرة –بالسودان للفترة (1991ـ 2015)

Abstract

Wheat is one of the most important strategic food security crops grown during the winter season in Gezira scheme. This study aimed to identify and to estimate wheat production in Gezira scheme in Sudan during the period (1991- 2015). This study used secondary data information that consists of time series of wheat production, real costs, temperature, economic liberalization (dummy variable) obtained from Wad Madani Meteorological Station, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and Central Bureau of Statistics. This study used analytical descriptive method. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique to estimate climate and same economic factors that influence wheat production in Gezira Scheme though (E- views software). The findings showed that, rising costs have negative effect on production. This explained the fact that production inputs such as agricultural machines, pesticides were imported from other countries, so it affected directly by exchange rate. Results showed that, there were an inverse and significant relationship between average temperature and wheat production during the period of study. On the other hand, economic liberalization (dummy variable) has positive effect on wheat production, considering increase of agricultural finance from 2% to 50% during nineteenth`s from total finance. The study recommended with efficient production technologies to decrease. the real production costs. To cope with climate change conditions, growing early mature and drought tolerant varieties, are crucially needed. More revision and studies concern with economic liberalization policies to alleviate economic distortions that are associated with these policies would be applied.