Analytical and Numerical Sand Production Prediction Calibrated with Field Data, Example from High-Rate Gas Wells

Abstract

Abstract Sand production prediction is essential from the early stages of field development planning for well completion design and later for production management. Unconsolidated and weakly consolidated sandstones are prone to fail at low flowing bottom hole pressures during hydrocarbon production. To predict the sand-free drawdown, a robust sand prediction model that integrates near-wellbore and in-situ stresses, rock mechanical properties, well trajectory, reservoir pressure, production and depletion trends is required. Sanding prediction models should be calibrated with field data such as production and well tests observation. In the absence of field data, numerical techniques can provide a reliable estimate on potential onset and severity of sanding at various reservoir pressures. In this study, analytical and finite-element numerical models are independently used to predict the onset of sanding and volume of produced sand from high rate has wells with weakly consolidated sandstone reservoirs in onshore, Western Australia. The analytical method uses a poro-elastic model and core-calibrated log-derived rock strength profiles with an empirical effective rock strength factor (ESF). In the study, the ESF was calibrated against documented field sanding observation from a well test extended flow period at the initial reservoir pressure under a low drawdown pressure. The numerical method uses a poro-elasto-plastic model defined from triaxial core tests. The rock failure criterion in the numerical method is based on a critical strain limit (CSL) corresponding to the failure of the inner wall of thick-walled cylinder core tests that can also satisfy the existing wells sanding observations. To verify the onset and severity of sanding predicted by the analytical model, numerical simulations for an identical sandstone interval are developed to investigate the corresponding CSL. This combined analytical and numerical modelling calibrated with field data provided high confidence in the sanding evaluation and their application for future well completion and sand management decisions. The analytical model was finally used for sanding assessment over field life pressure condition because of its processing simplicity, speed and flexibility in assessing various pressure and rock strength scenarios with sensitivity analysis over the whole production interval in compared with the numerical method which is more suitable for single-depth, single pressure condition and well and perforation trajectory modelling.