Abstract
To achieve the goal of "emission peak and carbon neutrality", it is particularly important to accelerate the transformation of low-carbon production as the construction industry of China’s major carbon emission. Considering the national industrial management system, this paper constructs a stochastic game model of supplier group’s production strategy in construction supply chain based on Moran process, analyzes the conditions for low-carbon emission strategy to fixate in supplier populations and become an evolutionary stable strategy, then, carries out numerical analysis on fixation probability and fixation times, and the influence of various factors on the evolution process is discussed, such as the initial willingness of suppliers to choose low-carbon emission strategy, the cost subsidy coefficient of government to low carbon suppliers, the reward and punishment of government and the credibility of suppliers. The results show that on the basis of vigorously promoting environmental protection, the government should implement a differentiated treatment policy through the establishment of carbon emissions standards, cost subsidies, incentives and punishment measures, and information disclosure systems to guide supplier groups to transformation into low-carbon production.
Highlights
In 2020, at the 75th General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly, China proposed to adopt stronger policies and measures to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 [1]
To achieve low-carbon production in construction industry requires the joint efforts of government and enterprises
This paper studies the evolutionary trajectory of the construction engineering supplier group’s transition to low-carbon production under government’s carbon regulatory environment from the perspective of the engineering supply chain supplier groups
Summary
In 2020, at the 75th General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly, China proposed to adopt stronger policies and measures to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 [1]. There are applied studies of Moran process, such as for the manufacturing industry, to analyze favorable conditions for the predominance of profitmaximizing production strategies and revenue-maximizing production strategies for a finite number of manufacturers [49], credit information sharing strategies for e-commerce platforms [50], the evolutionary process of strategies for whether consumers participate in crowdfunding [51], and the evolutionary process of quality improvement input decisions by production companies [52]; for social management, to analyze the process of strategy evolution for trainee attacks under de-radicalization approach [53], the process of strategy evolution for attacks by separatist terrorist organizations [54], the mechanism of defusing mass emergencies [55], and strategic evolution process for counter-terrorism by the governments of member countries of anti-terrorism coalition [56]; and for engineering management, to analyze the favorable conditions for promoting the strategy of not adopting opportunistic behavior by contractors of PPP projects [57].
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