Analysis on shock effect of China’s high-speed railway on aviation transport

Abstract

As China’s high-speed railway featured by low-carbon quick prospers rapidly, railway transport has been regarded as a crucial means to replace the aviation transport. Selecting the data from 156 routes of China's 48 major cities from 2001 to 2014, the paper takes the aviation mileage as the threshold variable and the operation time as the control variable to build a panel threshold regression model. Firstly, under the consideration of the economic, demographic, environmental and railway indicators, the paper analyzes the influence of China’s railway on the aviation passenger volume and the flight number; secondly, under the condition that the railway speed is more than 250 km/h, the paper analyzes the shock effect of China’s high-speed railway on aviation transport. The conclusion shows that the higher the level of the economic development is, the more developed the aviation transport of the region will be. when the aviation mileage is below 1132 km, as the aviation mileage increases, the influence of China’s railway to the aviation transport fall into a decline; China’s high-speed railway has a positive shock effect on the aviation transport, and the shock effect reaches the maximum when the aviation mileage is from 650 to 755 km. This paper is of great practical significance to study the optimization of transportation structure.