Analysis on factors behind the decline of the agricultural labor share in total labor force of China (1990–2030)

Abstract

The agricultural labor share in total labor force is determined by many factors, such as number of new participators and those leaving from labor force and transferring to non-farming. This article estimates the contribution of the determining factors for the changes of agricultural labor share during the period 1990–2030. Given the assumption about the average annual decline of the agricultural labor share in the future, the number of new participators in agricultural labor is estimated to decline from 20.23 million during 2005–2010 to 11.42 million during 2025–2030, and the numbers of leaving and transferring are estimated to change from 42.47 million and 38.32 million to 27.04 million and 29.49 million, respectively, during the same period. The average annual non-farming job creation may decline from 13.938 million to 7.016 million. Given the fact that pressure on agricultural labor transfer and non-farming job creation tends to ease but will exist in the long term. China shall adjust its employment policies from focusing only on quantity expansion to equally stress on ‘quantity and quality, speed, and structure’.