Analysis of water and food security scenarios for 2025 with the PODIUM model: the case of Agro‐Ecological Region 12 of India

Abstract

AbstractThe Policy Interactive Dialogue Model (PODIUM), developed by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), has been used to consider data of 1995 as a base to predict water–food security scenarios for 2025 of Agro‐Ecological Region 12 (AER12) of India having a total geographical area of 26.8 million ha. The model has been used to address the food and water security issues simultaneously and generates alternative scenarios highlighting the interlinkages between water and food security. In this study four scenarios: business as usual scenario (BAU); food security scenario (FS); water security scenario (WS); and water and food security scenario (WFS) have been analysed. The BAU scenario projects that the region AER12 of India will face a food deficit of 7.46 million t in 2025. The total annually renewable water resources of the region will be 40.3 billion m3 in 2025, out of which a maximum of 21.7 billion m3 will be available in Agro‐Ecological Sub Region (AESR12.1), followed by 10.2 and 8.3 billion m3 in AESR12.2 and AESR12.3, respectively. The diversion of available water in all sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry) in AER12 was 15.4 billion m3 in 1995, which is expected to increase by 81.7% in 2025, but due to urbanisation and industrial demand, the available water for the agricultural sector is expected to reduce by 64%. In the industry sector it is projected to jump from 10% in 1995 to 28% in 2025.After analysing the BAU scenario of the region, some of the specific alternative options have been explored with the PODIUM model by altering the drivers in order to find feasible ways to make the region secure and sustainable with a comfortable level of food and water by 2025. The outcomes of the alternative options are discussed in this paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.