Analysis of variations and trends of temperature over Niger central hydrological area, Nigeria, 1911–2015

Abstract

Adequate information about the variations and trends of climatic variables is indispensable for the better management of the water resources and agricultural sectors. In this study, the variability and trends of the monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures ((TMIN, TMAX and TMEAN) time series were studied over Niger Central Hydrological Area, Nigeria (NCHA) during 1911–2015 using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data. Different statistical operations analysis comprising descriptive statistics, linear regression model, Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt's test and standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) were employed for the analysis. The tests were used to examine the temperature variability, presence of monotonic trends and change points of the time series. The monthly TMEAN variability over the entire area was between 2.10% and 3.61%. Periods 1914–1925 and 1974–1980 showed cooling trends, while 1930–1935, 1981–1988 and 2001–2015 exhibited warming trends. The annual TMIN and TMEAN showed positive trends across the 33 sub-basins of NCHA, while the TMAX showed mixed trends. The increasing trend was most significant on the monthly, seasonal and annual timescales of the TMIN, followed by TMEAN. In contrast, the mixed trends in TMAX were not significant. The global rate of change trends of TMIN, TMAX and TMEAN are 0.091, −0.007 and 0.043 °C/decade respectively. The overall warming of TMEAN also had a significant upward shift change of 0.43 °C since 1980 and the change spatially is characterized by a SW-NE orientation. There is a need to embrace green settlement and a green economy to reduce the impact of the ever-increasing warming trend over the region.