Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

Abstract

As one of the most serious natural disasters, many typhoons affect southeastern China every year. Taking Shenzhen, a coastal city in southeast China as an example, we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis. By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration (CMA-STI), typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen. We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons. In addition, the Yan Meng (YM) wind field model was introduced, and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed. Using the YM wind field model, extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons. The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.