Analysis of Trends in Mega-Sized Container Ships Using the K-Means Clustering Algorithm

Woo-Ju Son,Ik-Soon Cho

doi:10.3390/app12042115

Abstract

The size of ships is increasing rapidly, and over 400 m length overall mega-sized container ships are predicted to appear in the near future. Consequently, studies on large container ships have been conducted; however, based on the 30,000-TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) class container ship’s length overall, the deviation of the predicted range showed an 83.9 m difference from 453.0 m to 536.9 m. This is because simple linear regression analysis does not consider trends according to the type of cargo or the size of the cargo. In this study, 5497 container ships up to 20 years of age with an International Maritime Organization (IMO) number registered were clustered according to the change in ship dimensions by k-means clustering algorithm. Based on the clustered data, deadweight tonnage, TEU, length overall, length between perpendiculars, breadth, and maximum draft of container ships with a coverage rate of 75% were analyzed to predict the change in the main dimensions. The results indicated that for a 30,000-TEU container ship, the predicted length overall is 428.4 m, breadth is 67.6 m, and draft is 17.0 m. This study can help minimize the social costs of designing ports in consideration of future mega-sized container ships.

Highlights

With the rapid development of mega-sized container ships, and over 400 m length overall mega-sized container ships are predicted to appear in the near future, container ships may appear in the near future
For future large ships, if the length overall (LOA) and breadth cannot secure the safety of passage in the target sea area, costs such as pier extension and breakwater reconstruction will occur, and additional social costs will be incurred during the consultation between related organizations
The results indicate that a k value of 3 was recommended as the most suitable value for container ships; in this study, regression analysis was performed for the main dimensions by dividing the data into three clusters

Summary

Introduction

With the rapid development of mega-sized container ships, and over 400 m length overall mega-sized container ships are predicted to appear in the near future, container ships may appear in the near future. The size of the target ship is generally considered when constructing ports or designing a water facility such as a navigation route or a breakwater. For future large ships, if the length overall (LOA) and breadth cannot secure the safety of passage in the target sea area, costs such as pier extension and breakwater reconstruction will occur, and additional social costs will be incurred during the consultation between related organizations. The Korea Maritime Institute predicted the shape of a mega-sized container ship by deriving a regression equation by simple linear regression analysis using the TEU of the main dimensions [2]. Cho et al [3] predicted the container ship’s main dimension by dividing changes in container ship size according to different scenarios. Current 15,000-TEU to 24,000-TEU container ships have a total length of 1310 ft (approximately 400 m) and are being enlarged by increasing their breadth

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion