Analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19 via closed-form solutions of a susceptible-infectious-quarantined-diseased model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function.

Abstract

We analyze the disease control and prevention strategies in a susceptible‐infectious‐quarantined‐diseased (SIQD) model with a quarantine‐adjusted incidence function. We have established the closed‐form solutions for all the variables of SIQD model with a quarantine‐adjusted incidence function provided β≠γ+α by utilizing the classical techniques of solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The epidemic peak and time required to attain this peak are provided in closed form. We have provided closed‐form expressions for force of infection and rate at which susceptible becomes infected. The management of epidemic perceptive using control and prevention strategies is explained as well. The epidemic starts when ρ 0 > 1, the peak of epidemic appears when number of infected attains peak value when ρ0=1, and the disease dies out ρ 0 < 1. We have provided the comparison of estimated and actual epidemic peak of COVID‐19 in Pakistan. The forecast of epidemic peak for the United states, Brazil, India, and the Syrian Arab Republic is given as well.