Epidemic Intelligence Models in Air Traffic Networks for Understanding the Dynamics in Disease Spread - A Case Study

Abstract

Aim/Purpose: The understanding of disease spread dynamics in the context of air travel is crucial for effective disease detection and epidemic intelligence. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Hospitalized-Critical-Deaths (SEIR-HCD) model proposed in this research work is identified as a valuable tool for capturing the complex dynamics of disease transmission, healthcare demands, and mortality rates during epidemics. Background: The spread of viral diseases is a major problem for public health services all over the world. Understanding how diseases spread is important in order to take the right steps to stop them. In epidemiology, the SIS, SIR, and SEIR models have been used to mimic and study how diseases spread in groups of people. Methodology: This research focuses on the integration of air traffic network data into the SEIR-HCD model to enhance the understanding of disease spread in air travel settings. By incorporating air traffic data, the model considers the role of travel patterns and connectivity in disease dissemination, enabling the identification of high-risk routes, airports, and regions. Contribution: This research contributes to the field of epidemiology by enhancing our understanding of disease spread dynamics through the application of the SIS, SIR, and SEIR-HCD models. The findings provide insights into the factors influencing disease transmission, allowing for the development of effective strategies for disease control and prevention. Findings: The interplay between local outbreaks and global disease dissemination through air travel is empirically explored. The model can be further used for the evaluation of the effectiveness of surveillance and early detection measures at airports and transportation hubs. The proposed research contributes to proactive and evidence-based strategies for disease prevention and control, offering insights into the impact of air travel on disease transmission and supporting public health interventions in air traffic networks. Recommendations for Practitioners: Government intervention can be studied during difficult times which plays as a moderating variable that can enhance or hinder the efficacy of epidemic intelligence efforts within air traffic networks. Expert collaboration from various fields, including epidemiology, aviation, data science, and public health with an interdisciplinary approach can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the disease spread dynamics in air traffic networks. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers can collaborate with international health organizations and authorities to share their research findings and contribute to a global understanding of disease spread in air traffic networks. Impact on Society: This research has significant implications for society. By providing a deeper understanding of disease spread dynamics, it enables policymakers, public health officials, and practitioners to make informed decisions to mitigate disease outbreaks. The recommendations derived from this research can aid in the development of effective strategies to control and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ultimately leading to improved public health outcomes and reduced societal disruptions. Future Research: Practitioners of the research can contribute more effectively to disease outbreaks within the context of air traffic networks, ultimately helping to protect public health and global travel. By considering air traffic patterns, the SEIR-HCD model contributes to more accurate modeling and prediction of disease outbreaks, aiding in the development of proactive and evidence-based strategies to manage and mitigate the impact of infectious diseases in the context of air travel.