Analysis of the upper tail of the short-term extreme tension distribution of mooring line by the peaks-over-threshold method

Abstract

The consistency of the upper tail of the extreme response distribution plays an important role in the accuracy of the extreme response prediction. Although the peaks-over-threshold method has a high data utilization of the response time series, the consistency of the upper tail of the extreme response distribution was not thoroughly investigated, especially for the inherent randomness of the short-term sea state. This study aims to estimate the upper tail of the short-term extreme tension distribution of the mooring line considering the short-term variability by the peaks-over-threshold method. The consistency of the extreme tension distribution tail is quantified by a relative error compared with the global maximum method, and the theoretical optimal threshold is defined by minimizing the largest relative error among the tail quantiles for different thresholds. Results from a case study for the mooring line of the fish cage indicate that the effect of the random seed is significant for consistency in the prediction of the distribution tail of the short-term extreme tension. And the generalized Pareto distribution model combined with the L-moments method is recommended for the theoretical optimal threshold. These findings provide some useful suggestions for the preliminary design of the mooring line for offshore structures.