Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variability of Hydrological Drought Regimes in the Lowland Rivers of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Hydrological droughts occur as a result of various hydrometeorological conditions, such as precipitation deficits, reduced snow cover, and high evapotranspiration. Droughts caused by precipitation deficits and occurring during warm seasons are usually longer in duration. This important observation raises the question that climate change associated with global warming may increase drought conditions. Consequently, it is important to understand changes in the processes leading to dry periods in order to predict potential changes in the future. This study is a scientific analysis of the impact of climate change on drought conditions in the Zhaiyk–Caspian, Tobyl–Torgai, Yesil, and Nura–Sarysu water management basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and streamflow drought index (SDI). The analysis methods include the collection of hydrometeorological data for the entire observation period up to and including 2021 and the calculation of drought indices to assess their intensity and duration. The results of this study indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of drought periods in the areas under consideration, which is associated with changes in climatic conditions. The identified trends have serious implications for agriculture, ecological balance, and water resources. The conclusions of this scientific study can be useful for the development of climate change adaptation strategies and the sustainable management of natural resources in the regions under consideration.