Analysis of the spatio-temporal changes and driving factors of the marine economic–ecological–social coupling coordination: A case study of 11 coastal regions in China

Abstract

For the sustainable development of the ocean, examining the coupled and coordinated relationships of the marine economic-ecological-social system (MEESS) is crucial. In this study, data from 11 coastal regions of China from 2006 to 2020 are utilized to quantify and analyze the MEESS coupling coordination relationships and driving factors using the entropy method, mean squared deviation weighting method, coefficient of variation method, improved coupling coordination degree (CCD), GM (1,1) (grey model), and generalized method of moments (GMM) models. The findings show that (1) the comprehensive level of the MEESS in the study area indicates a steady upward trend. The marine economic system maintains a steady rise, the marine ecological system starts at a high level and grows at a low rate, and the marine social system starts at a low level and grows at a high rate. (2) The coupling degree is higher in areas with a higher comprehensive level of marine ecological systems. (3) As of 2020, six study regions were in the moderate coordination stage. Except for Shanghai, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) in other regions shows a fluctuating upward trend. (4) From 2021 to 2026, the coastal area overall will enter the intermediate coordination stage. Shandong will take the lead in the good coordination stage. (5) In terms of drivers, port activity, financial industry development, and government support significantly affect the CCD. The findings of this study demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the improved CCD model in evaluating the interactions of multiple ocean subsystems. This demonstration can help policymakers tailor marine development planning and provide a new perspective on sustainable marine development.