Abstract
Drought causes serious social and environmental problems that have great impact on the lives of thousands of people all around the world. The purpose of this research was to investigate the trends in humid conditions in the northeast of Brazil (NEB) in the highest climatic precipitation quarters, November–December–January (NDJ), February–March–April (FMA), and May–June–July (MJJ), through the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), considering an alternative statistical approach. Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series for the calculation of the SPEI were extracted for the 1794 NEB municipalities between 1980 and 2015 from a grid dataset with a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° using the bilinear interpolation method. The trends and statistical significance of the SPEI were estimated by quantile regression (QR) and the bootstrap test. In NDJ, opposite trends were seen in the eastern NEB (~0.5 SPEI/decade) and in the south (~−0.6 SPEI/decade). In FMA, most of NEB presented negative trends in the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles (~−0.3 SPEI/decade), while in MJJ, most of NEB presented positive trends in all quantiles studied (~0.4 SPEI/decade). The results are consistent with observational analyses of extreme rainfall.
Highlights
northeast of Brazil (NEB) is approximately 1.6 × 106 km2 in area, with nine states: Maranhão (MA), Piauí (PI), Ceará (CE), Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Paraiba (PB), Pernambuco (PE), Alagoas (AL), Sergipe (SE), andBahia (BA)
Three areas differ in NEB: the north with annual averages ranging from 1000 to
NEB municipalities thestudy, grid analysis of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data will always grid points around one (Figure spatially distributed pluviometrically states the andsimple regions point 1b), of interest, time series wereover extracted for each NEBhomogeneous municipality using bilinear
Summary
NEB is approximately 1.6 × 106 km in area, with nine states: Maranhão (MA), Piauí (PI), Ceará (CE), Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Paraiba (PB), Pernambuco (PE), Alagoas (AL), Sergipe (SE), andBahia (BA). NEB is approximately 1.6 × 106 km in area, with nine states: Maranhão (MA), Piauí (PI), Ceará (CE), Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Paraiba (PB), Pernambuco (PE), Alagoas (AL), Sergipe (SE), and. The natural disaster that causes the most damage to the northeast region of Brazil (NEB) is drought, which is much more frequent than flood [1,2,3,4,5,6]. NEB has a biome with unique characteristics in its semiarid portion, the caatinga. Droughts are natural phenomena in NEB, studies indicate that the intensity and magnitude of recent events have shown an increase in severity, which may be associated with accelerated deforestation in the semiarid interior where caatinga predominates [7]. Three areas differ in NEB: the north with annual averages ranging from 1000 to
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