Analysis of the number of flux chamber samples and study area size on the accuracy of emission rate measurements

Abstract

ABSTRACTMonte Carlo simulations were conducted on a set of flux chamber measurements at a landfill to estimate the relationship between the number of flux chamber samples and study area size on the emission rate measurement accuracy. The spatial variability of flux was addressed in the study by utilizing an existing flux chamber measurement data set that is one of the most dense flux chamber sampling arrays published to date for a landfill. At a probability of 95%, the Monte Carlo simulations indicated that achieving an accuracy within 10% with the flux chamber method is highly unlikely. An accuracy within 20% was achieved for small areas of less than about 0.2 hectares using 220 flux chamber measurements, but achieving this level of accuracy for area emission sources, of similar or greater variability, that are larger than this is highly unlikely. An accuracy within 30% was achieved up to the Full Area of about 0.4 hectares if more than approximately 120 samples were obtained. Even for an accuracy within 50%, at least 40 flux chamber measurements were needed for the Full Area of about 0.4 hectares. Available methods of estimating the number of samples required were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that, in general, more samples are required than determined from an existing statistical method, which is a function of the mean and standard deviation of the population. Specifying the number of samples based on a regulatory method results in very poor accuracy. A modification to the statistical method for estimating the number of samples, or for estimating an accuracy for a given probability and number of samples, is proposed.Implications: The flux chamber method is the most widely used method of measuring fugitive emission rates from area sources. However, extrapolation of a set of individual flux chamber samples to a larger area results in area flux measurement values of unknown accuracy. Quantification of the accuracy of the extrapolation of a set of flux chamber measurements would be beneficial for understanding the confidence that can be placed on the measurement results. Guidance as to the appropriate number of flux chamber measurements to achieve a desired level of accuracy would benefit flux chamber method practitioners.