Analysis of the Lithuanian final energy consumption using fuzzy sets

Abstract

In the paper, the development of final energy consumption in Lithuania, on the basis of realistic economic scenarios, is investigated. The main parameters influencing the energy consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the wholesale price of energy. Owing to the uncertainties in former socialist economies, these parameters are described as ‘fuzzy sets.’ The theory of fuzzy sets is used to study the influences that the prices of preceding periods have on the actual final energy consumption, with a quasidynamic model. In so far as this mechanism cannot be ascertained for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally planned economies, which have already turned into a kind of market economy, are applied to give realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections. The results of the fuzzy quasidynamic model are compared with the official final energy demand projections, to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy system.