Evolution and Forecasting of the Renewable Energy Consumption in the Frame of Sustainable Development: EU vs. Romania

Anca Mehedintu,Eugenia Grecu,Mihaela Sterpu,Georgeta Soava

doi:10.3390/su131810327

Anca Mehedintu, Eugenia Grecu + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810327

Copy DOI

Abstract

This article is part of the concerns generated by the need to increase the consumption of renewable energy, so that in the European Union (EU) countries, its share in the final energy consumption, to reach 32% by 2030, increases. In the context in which, in the specialized literature, the analysis of renewable energy consumption by activity sectors is approached very little, such an analysis has high utility. The variables of interest are the share of renewable energy in the final energy consumption, and the share of renewable energy sources in the final energy consumption in transport, electricity, and heating and cooling. The study performs a comparative analysis of the evolution of these indicators for the period 2004–2019 for Romania and the EU, an empirical estimate of the evolution of indicators using time regression and autoregressive models, a forecast of the share of renewable energy consumption in the final energy consumption and by the main sectors (transport, electricity, and heating and cooling) for the 2030 horizon, providing appropriate scenarios for achieving the EU established goals, as well as an analysis of the interdependence between the indicators. Through the results obtained, the paper can contribute to improving the framework for the sustainable development of energy consumption.

Highlights

One of the objectives set by the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive [1] was to achieve20% renewable energy in the final energy consumption by 2020, for the European Union (EU) and at the level of each member state
To achieve the targets set by the European Commission for 2030, according to which the share of renewable energy consumption in Heating and Cooling Sector (H&C) in total heating and cooling energy consumption must reach 32%, member states are required to strive for an average annual increase of 1.3% between 2021 and 2030, for renewable energy in the H&C sector [3]
Romania recorded the highest growth rate, after it acceded to the EU in 2008, when the conditions imposed by the EU, on increasing the share of renewable energy consumption in the total volume of consumption, were experienced (Table 1)

Summary

Introduction

One of the objectives set by the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive [1] was to achieve20% renewable energy in the final energy consumption by 2020, for the European Union (EU) and at the level of each member state. The situation is very different for the EU member states; some have exceeded the target (Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, etc.), but others are still far from reaching the target (France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, etc.) [2] In these conditions, in December 2018, the EU presented a new directive on renewable energy [3], setting a goal to reach a share of 32% of renewable energy consumption in the final energy consumption by 2030. Europe aims to become a climate-neutral continent by 2050 [4], by achieving a sustainable green transition In this respect, the EU considers that renewable energy sources can play a very important role, and sets a target that by 2050, at least 80%

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Conclusion