Abstract
Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap; per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap; per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.
Highlights
As a big grain country, the grain issue has always been a foundation for the stable development of the country’s economy and social stability, a significant issue concerning the international people’s livelihood
The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap; per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap; per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice
From the grey correlation degree analysis of the influence factors and the suppy-demand gap, we can find that the biggest impact on the supply and demand gap of wheat is the sown area and yield per unit area
Summary
As a big grain country, the grain issue has always been a foundation for the stable development of the country’s economy and social stability, a significant issue concerning the international people’s livelihood. Gao and Teng [5] [6] analyzed the grain supply and demand relationship and grain security situation in Tibet and Chongqing respectively. The grey system theory is a new method proposed by Professor Deng Julong to study the problem with less data and poor information uncertainty [7]. It is based on the “small sample” and “poor information” uncertainty system with “some information is known and some information is unknown”. The calculation formula of grey correlation degree is:. The larger j=1 the γ i , the greater the degree of association, and vice versa
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