Abstract
In order to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area, a system dynamics (SD) model was established to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity, for which several scenarios were designed: the original development scenario, the accelerated industrialization scenario, the environmental governance scenario, and the optimization development scenario. The results show that, compared with the original development scenario, the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area can be improved in other scenarios, but a water supply and demand gap will be generated due to the lack of groundwater overdraft and a water transfer project. In 2026, under the accelerated industrialization scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.652 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 1.13 × 108 m3; under the environmental governance scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.36 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 0.44 × 108 m3; under the optimal development scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.654 million, and since the supply of water resources will be greater than the demand, there will not be a gap between supply and demand, making it the most feasible scenario to effectively alleviate the tension between industry restructuring, environmental management, and water resources development and utilization. The findings of this study can provide reference and decision support for optimizing regional water resources allocation and enhancing water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area.
Highlights
On 1 April 2017, the Chinese government issued the plan for the construction of Xiong’anNew Area
This study aims to construct models that characterize socioeconomic traits, industrial structure, and ecological factors to simulate the variations of water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area based on the system dynamics (SD) method and to compare the results with other scholars’ findings through the structural entropy method, system analysis method, and so forth [9,10,11,12,13]
The simulations of water resources carrying capacities in Xiong’an New Area in different scenarios revealed a common fact about the dynamics of the possible bearable population: in all three scenarios, the maximal bearable population decreases in the first years and reaches its lowest value in the third year, and it increases throughout the following years
Summary
On 1 April 2017, the Chinese government issued the plan for the construction of Xiong’an. Previous studies often suggest weak water resources carrying capacity and a challenging human–water relationship in Xiong’an New Area based on qualitative analyses of its current situation [7,8]. This study aims to construct models that characterize socioeconomic traits, industrial structure, and ecological factors to simulate the variations of water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area based on the system dynamics (SD) method and to compare the results with other scholars’ findings through the structural entropy method, system analysis method, and so forth [9,10,11,12,13]. The analyses and discussions of the four different situations may provide comprehensive suggestions to improve water resources allocation and the development of Xiong’an New Area
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