Analysis of the impact and moderating effect of high-density development on urban flooding

Abstract

Although previous studies have posited that the high-density development of urban buildings and infrastructure contributes to urban flooding, empirical analyses and in-depth investigations into the interaction factors have remained limited. This study aims to analyze the influence and moderating effect of high-density development on urban flooding. Thus far, various land-use and interaction factors related to urban development density have been explored. Subsequently, the urban watershed was selected, utilizing panel data 2002 to 2017, and employing the Tobit model for analysis. The analysis revealed that high-density development had an adverse effect on urban flooding and that the runoff characteristics of high-density development were not limited to those of impervious surfaces. The horizontal and vertical aspects of dense buildings and structures acted as sub-watersheds that increased the time to reach peak flow. Moreover, high-density development had a moderating effect in low-lying areas. The results of this study underscore the necessity of urban disaster prevention planning to consider the direct and indirect effects, as well as the runoff characteristics, of high-density development on urban flooding.