Abstract
Analysis of the rise in prices for consumer goods is a state’s priority task. The state assumes the obligation to regulate pricing in all spheres of consumption. First of all, the prices for essential commodities to which agricultural products belong are analyzed. The article shows the changes in prices for consumer goods of agricultural products (sugar) during a pandemic. The analysis of forecasting prices for sugar and its impact on the development of its production is carried out. The construction of the forecast model was based on extrapolation. The structure of a forecast model for price changes was based on the analysis of the time series of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) class. This model consists of an autoregressive model and a moving average model. A forecast of the volume of domestic sugar transportation by rail has been completed. The algorithms implemented this model for searching for initial approximations and optimal parameters for the predictive model. The Hirotsugu Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to select the best model. The algorithms were implemented in the Python programming language. The quality check of the description was performed with a predictive model of actual data. An economic interpretation of the rise in sugar prices and proof of the forecast’s truth obtained from a financial point of view were carried out.
Highlights
We will predict the dynamics of sugar prices in the short term
We will ignore every unsuitable parameter and consider only those that are similar to optimal. Those will be selected for which the value of the information criterion will be minimal
The paper proposed analyzing a comprehensive assessment of sugar prices in the Russian Federation in 2020
Summary
Agriculture is a large and multi-stage industry. The sustainability of the development of this industry is the primary task of the state. Having built a predictive model and ensuring its accuracy, we will determine the trend towards decreasing or increasing the volume of domestic traffic of the product in question. Based on this result, we will predict the dynamics of sugar prices in the short term. We consider the inverse correlation of the demand for a product with the price itself— an increase in value will guarantee a decrease in order In this case, the volume of cargo transportation in the country will decrease. Since we will already know the amount of sugar transported over the following years, we will estimate the cost measure of the product itself [3]
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