Analysis of the environmental impact of China based on STIRPAT model

Abstract

Assuming that energy consumption is the main source of GHG emissions in China, this paper analyses the effect of population, urbanisation level, GDP per capita, industrialisation level and energy intensity on the country's environmental impact using the STIRPAT model with data for 1978–2006. The analysis shows that population has the largest potential effect on environmental impact, followed by urbanisation level, industrialisation level, GDP per capita and energy intensity. Hence, China's One Child Policy, which restrains rapid population growth, has been an effective way of reducing the country's environmental impact. However, due to the difference in growth rates, GDP per capita had a higher effect on the environmental impact, contributing to 38% of its increase (while population's contribution was at 32%). The rapid decrease in energy intensity was the main factor restraining the increase in China's environmental impact but recently it has also been rising. Against this background, the future of the country looks bleak unless a change in human behaviour towards more ecologically sensitive economic choices occurs.