Analysis of the dynamics and forecast of mortgage loans according to Goskomstat data in the Russian Federation for 2018–2022

Abstract

The modern Russian economy shows that mortgage lending is an important market tool capable of solving economic and social problems. Mortgage lending is the most important link in the financial market. The most common way to use a mortgage in Russia is for an individual to buy an apartment on credit. At the same time, as a rule, newly purchased housing is mortgaged, although it is possible to mortgage an apartment already owned. When mortgaging real estate, the authorities registering transactions make appropriate records that the property is encumbered with collateral. Any interested person may request an extract from the State Register of Rights to Immovable Property and Transactions with It. In Russia, no more than a hundred banks are active in the mortgage market. This article discusses the features of mortgage lending in the Russian Federation, as well as statistics on the activities of commercial banks engaged in mortgage issuance. To study the process of mortgage lending, the main statistical indicators were taken according to the Central Bank and Rosstat, the use of which allowed us to consider in detail the procedures for issuing mortgage loans. In addition, it is shown that the adaptive multiplicative Holt-Winters model and correlation analysis should be used to make the forecast. TheHolt-Winters model is an extension of the Holt method to three-parameter exponential smoothing. Investigator, this method is characterized by three parameters that must be selected in order to obtain a forecast. The choice of these parameters can be made by simple iteration. Holt-Winters models can take into account seasonality in multiplicative and additive variants. Thus, the multiplicative case represents seasonality as a product, and the additive case as a sum. The object of the study: the volume of mortgage loans issued by commercial banks. The subject of the study is the analysis of the dynamics and short-term forecast of mortgage lending. The purpose of the study is to analyze the dynamics and forecast of mortgage loans in the Russian Federation in 20182022. The relevance of this topic is due to the fact that in many countries the housing problem is solved with the help of mortgage lending. The development of mortgage lending has a positive impact on the real sector of the economy, suspending the decline in production in some industries, therefore, there is a need to modernize production.