Abstract
In this study, the current state of hazel dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) populations in Ukraine was analysed in detail using the MaxEnt geographic modelling tool. It is known that fragmentation of natural ecosystems is one of the main threats to biodiversity conservation. Species with low population numbers, such as the hazel dormouse, are particularly vulnerable to this process. Reducing the area of forests leads to a reduction in the number of areas available for nesting, makes it more difficult to find food and can change the microclimate in forest fragments, which leads to changes in the vegetation cover on which the food base depends. The isolation of individual populations limits the opportunities for genetic exchange and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. To estimate the potential range, we developed a distribution model using data on records of the species and climatic characteristics of these areas. The results of the modelling allowed us to identify areas where there is a high probability of occurrence of this species and to identify key factors affecting its distribution. The model allowed us to identify areas where there is a high probability of occurrence of this species, even in the absence of direct observations. It is an important tool for planning measures to protect and restore natural habitats. The analysis of the obtained data showed that the distribution of the hazel dormouse is most influenced by climatic factors that reflect the temperature of the warmest months, humidity, and precipitation. It is these factors that we recommend to be used to develop more accurate distribution models of the species and predict the potential consequences of climate change for its range. The study highlights the importance of preserving forest ecosystems to maintain biodiversity in general and its index species, such as the hazel dormouse. The obtained results can be used to develop effective strategies for the conservation of the hazel dormouse and other species that depend on forest habitats, including the creation of new nature reserves, reforestation and preservation of old forests.
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