Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Pattern Changes and Driving Forces of Xinjiang Plain Oases Based on Geodetector

Abstract

Water and soil resources are the key elements required to maintain the stability and sustainable development of oases in inland drylands. This study takes oases in Xinjiang as an example, and reveals the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of oases across Xinjiang, as well as the dynamic migration and transformation process of oases and the mutual influence of human activities on oasis resources, through a combination of land movement and attitude indicators, use of a gravity model, and Geodetector. The results show that: (1) the area containing the oases in the study has expanded, increasing by 24.0% between 1990 and 2020; (2) both artificial oases (AO) and natural oases (NO) were tilted in a northeast–southwest direction, with the center point of AOs moving slightly to the northeast, and the centripetal force and dispersion degree did not change significantly; the center point of NO moved significantly to the northeast, and the dispersion degree weakened, showing spatial convergence; (3) cultivated land and grassland were the main land types of oasis evolution, and their contribution to evolution was over 70%; and (4) the Geodetector results show that the three main factors driving the evolution of oases were vegetation cover, population density, and GDP. The research results have practical implications for land-use management planning and ecological environmental protection in arid zones.